Why Not?

Keizer Times Jason Cox July 3, 2008

Sean Bates, along with a small troupe of friends, family and well-wishers, were at McNary High School last week in Bates' first town hall forum as an independent Congressional candidate.

It's a long way from the walls of McNary High School to the halls of Congress.

But that's the road Sean Bates aims to take.

Technically, he's in the best financial straits, when compared to Democrat Kurt Schrader and Republican Mike Erickson, both seeking the 5th Congressional seat to be vacated by Rep. Darlene Hooley.

A detailed national poll (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg) in late June 2008 shows that, as a candidate for President, Ralph Nader pulls 3 times more votes from McCain than from Obama. This is the opposite of the conventional wisdom.

When Nader and Bob Barr are added to the race, Nader pulls away 6% of McCain's support but only 2% of Obama's support. Barr pulls away 5% of McCain's support and 0% of Obama's support. So having both Nader and Barr in the race reduces McCain's vote by 11% and reduces Obama's vote by only 2%.

Belcastro enters race for Buckley House seat

July 2, 2008 By JOHN DARLING for the Medford Mail Tribune

Longtime Rogue Valley television personality Pete Belcastro will run as an independent against Rep. Peter Buckley, D-Ashland, he announced Tuesday.

If elected, he will work to develop green industry, increase funding for higher education and reform Oregon’s tax system and spending, he said.

Belcastro, who worked for 19 years as director of Rogue Valley Community Television before leaving last year, said it’s “irresponsible and unsustainable” that the Democratic majority in the House has increased spending by $620 million a biennium during a tight economy.

On June 19, the Oregonian's web site reported:

In fact, this year primary winners in 24 of the 75 state legislative races won the write-in vote of the other major party.

In the Senate, it occurred in districts 5, 21, 22, 28, 29 and 30.

In the House, it happened in districts 5, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 21, 25, 31, 40, 43, 44, 46, 47, 48, 55, 56 and 60.

In another twist, two Portland Democratic primary losers won the Republican write-in vote: Gordon Hillesland, in House District 42, and Cyreena Boston, in House District 45.

But Hamilton said neither Hillesland nor Boston will appear on the ballot because of Oregon's sore loser law, which prohibits primary losers from running in the general election under a different party banner.

So Oregon now has 24 one-candidate Soviet-style "mockracies." In the absence of these "2-sided winners," the other major party would have either (1) run a write-in winner who was not already running for the same office or (2) if that winner declined the nomination, would have been able to choose a candidate for that office using internal party processes for filling nomination "vacancies."

So, in 6 of the 15 State Senate races and in 18 of the 60 State House races, there will be no competition between major party candidates at all--not even a race between an overwhelming favorite v. a write-in for the other party. Why? Because the hyperpartisan Oregon Secretary of State, Bill Bradbury, gerrymandered electoral competition out of his map redrawing the legislative districts after the 2000 census.

Welcome to Oregonistan, USA, as elsewhere described at Oregon Independent.

I will be holding a town hall meeting at McNary High School on Thursday June 26th.

This will be your chance to hear me speak about the issues that we all care about during this election. If you live in the Salem area please feel free to attend and ask questions. Also bring a friend.

For Release: June 9, 2008

The Independent Party of Oregon, the state's third largest political party, yesterday nominated one candidate for the Oregon House of Representatives and 2 candidates for county commissions.

• Oregon House of Representatives, District 4: Keith Wangle (www.votekeith.net)
• District 4 centers on Gold Hill and includes Central Point, part of Medford, and the outskirts around Grants Pass
• Wallowa County Commissioner #2: Ken Wick
• Curry County Commissioner #1: Stephen "Chip" Bradley

Here is a graph of pretty much the same polls as shown by Pollster.com, compiled by Electoral-vote.com, that shows only the results and not any sort of moving averages.