Peter Wong
Statesman Journal
April 18, 2010

A half century ago, barely 2 percent of Oregon's registered voters were neither Democrats nor Republicans.

Jim Moore, who teaches political science at Pacific University, said they include many new voters who have not developed any party loyalties, "and a bunch of former Republicans and Democrats who are fed up with their parties and decide to register as independents."

In the November 2008 presidential election, Democrats accounted for 43 percent of Oregon's 2 million registered voters, Republicans 32 percent, nonaffiliated voters 20 percent and other parties 5 percent.

As of the latest reports in March, Democrats and Republicans dropped slightly and the other groups were up slightly.

But in a primary election, when their choices are limited to ballot measures and nonpartisan offices, Oregon voters not affiliated with a party cast fewer ballots than Democrats and Republicans. It was true in 2008, when less than one-third of them returned ballots--and it is likely to be true May 18. Although there are many reasons why voters do not tie themselves to the Democratic and Republican parties, it's hazardous to generalize on their motives--perhaps befitting the definition of "independent."

From one side

Sandy Beder-Miller of Salem said she was not active politically until about a year ago. But on Thursday, as chairwoman of 912 Project Salem one of the organizations spawned by conservative commentator Glenn Beck she found herself speaking at a Tea Party rally on the steps of the Capitol.

She was recounting her recent attempt to get people to react to health-care legislation, which she opposed but was passed by Congress and signed by President Obama. More than three-quarters of the 427 passers-by in Riverfront Park offered no opinion.

"We have to wake those people up and let them know the world is not OK," she said.
According to a New York Times survey released Thursday, Tea Party supporters nationally tend to be older than U.S. adult averages and more conservative though many also earn more and are better educated. Many also are men and white.

Those sampled in the survey also said they tend to support Republicans and oppose Obama and the Democratic majorities in Congress.

Republicans are hoping to convert talk into action, when Obama isn't on the ballot himself.

"I was a little concerned that it would be a flash in the pan," said Wayne Brady of Salem, the Marion County Republican leader, who also spoke at the rally and in an interview afterward. "But we are getting a stronger organizational structure, linking with all these groups, and they are actually starting to do things.
"Of course, the tough job is ahead of us," he added. "It's not only the election, but to keep calling and mailing, and let the people we elect know we're happy to cut spending and do what is necessary to keep us on the right path."

Questions persist

Most of the candidates introduced at the Tea Party rally were Republicans. There were a few Libertarians--and one Democrat. But Ed Dover, a political science professor at Western Oregon University, said he is puzzled about why Republicans haven't done more to harness that potential support.

"They are saying essentially the Republican agenda with another name," Dover said.

He also said no leader has yet emerged and that supporters will have to demonstrate they can have a real effect on politics.

Some members of the movement last week released their own Contract from America, inspired by the 1994 "Contract with America" that Republicans used to win control of the U.S. House and make Newt Gingrich the first GOP speaker in 40 years. But they said the new 10-point document is their own.

Oregon has sided with Democratic presidential nominees since 1988, and voters have chosen Democrats for governor in six consecutive elections, the party's longest streak in state history.

"Our biggest challenge this time is to make sure we get the facts out," said Rick Hartwig of Salem, the Marion County Democratic leader. "If the general public is not misled, we are confident we will do well."

Hartwig said the Tea Party movement and other critics have blurred the public perception of what Obama and Congress have done in less than 18 months.

"He can't take a breath without being criticized by the other side," he said. "But they have passed an incredible amount of progressive legislation friendly to families and the middle class, and he's not getting much credit. He inherited a horrible deficit and recession and it takes a long time to emerge from what he was left."

Another side

Sal Peralta of McMinnville was a Democrat who came within 357 votes of unseating Republican state Rep. Donna Nelson in 2006. Nelson since has left the House, but Peralta has remained active as secretary of the Independent Party of Oregon, which now boasts more than 50,000 registered voters.

He said 85 percent of them voted in November 2008, more than the 76 percent of nonaffiliated voters and the 77 percent of voters in all smaller parties.

"They seem to be better informed and truly evaluating candidates based on their merits," he said, noting that the only thing his party's voters have in common with Tea Party supporters is their distrust of the established order.

Peralta said his party has grown large enough to consider its own mail-in primary in legislative districts where multiple candidates qualify forthe party nomination. If the money can be raised, Peralta said, the primary would be in July.

A 2009 law allows cross-nomination of candidates by up to three political parties on a general-election ballot.

Peralta said Democrats and Republicans could slow the movement from their own parties into his. "Voters probably would look a little more favorably on both political parties if they would be a little less partisan and work together to serve the common good," he said.

Since the 1980s, Oregon officials use the term "non-affiliated" to distinguish voters not registered with a political party from those registered in the Independent Party, or other uses of "independent." Under the banner of the Independent Initiative Party, H. Ross Perot's presidential candidacy won 19 percent of Oregon's votes in 1992--compared with 38 percent for Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush and 43 percent for Democrat Bill Clinton, the state and national winner.

That campaign also occurred as the nation was emerging from an economic downturn, though not as severe as the current one.

Oregon history

The Oregon registration figures may suggest that voters are more tied to a party than national averages.

An April 1 USA Today/Gallup Poll reported that voters who identify themselves as "independent" rose from 31 percent in 2005 to 39 percent now, compared with a Republican drop during the same span from 35 percent to 28 percent, and Democratic stability at 32 or 33 percent.

That survey was based on 1,033 adults sampled in late March they were simply asked to identify themselves with a party and the margin of error was 4 percentage points.

Still, voters in Oregon are less tied to political parties than in other states particularly in a state that pioneered the "Oregon System" allowing voters to write their own laws, pass on those already approved by lawmakers, and nominate and remove public officials at the ballot box.

"You can find an independent streak anywhere," Peralta said. "But I would agree that Oregon has a big independent streak."

Off-year elections usually result in less participation which could favor Republicans after consecutive setbacks at the hands of Democrats statewide and nationally in 2006 and 2008.

Typical off-year?

"I think Democrats feel good about themselves, they like what Obama has done and that will be reflected in this state," said WOU's Dover. "Republicans will try to raise doubts about where the president's party and the governor's party are going."

Two years ago, Democrats benefited from a registration surge and a competitive primary between Obama and Hillary Clinton for the presidential nomination and a general-election backlash against Republican incumbent George W. Bush. More than three-quarters of registered Democrats voted in the 2008 primary, and 89 percent in the general election.

Republican John McCain had no contest in the primary GOP turnout was 56 percent but 88 percent of Republicans voted in the general election. Nonaffiliated voters, on the other hand, participated at a rate of 29 percent because Oregon closes its party primaries to them.

A year and a half ago, Obama beat McCain in Oregon by about 20 percentage points.

"When there are economic problems, you will find people complaining about the president, whoever he is and whatever party he is from," Dover said. "If McCain had won the presidency, I am sure you would have seen demonstrations from substantial numbers of people on the left."

Dover said if the economy shows more signs of recovery, the political environment could look a lot different by Nov. 2.

Finding help

MARION COUNTY: 4263 Commercial St. SE, Suite 300, Salem. (503) 588-5041; elections@co.marion.or.us
POLK COUNTY: 850 Main St., Dallas. (503) 623-9217; unger.valerie@co.polk.or.us
STATE ELECTIONS DIVISION: (503) 986-1518 or 1 (866) ORE VOTE

ONLINE REGISTRATION(Oregon secretary of state)
https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/vr/register. do?lang=eng
MARION COUNTY
http://www.co.marion.or.us/co/elections
POLK COUNTY
http://www.co.polk.or.us